Sunday, December 6, 2009

Public opinion polls started out as means to serve a democratic state where everyone’s voices were heard. However, there are so many, millions of people in this state that its hard to get a consensus or even get an idea of how majority of these people really think. One way to do this, as the movie “Magic town” and the pollsters have discovered is to poll a sample or representative fraction of people. However, as we have learned throughout this course, to get a representative sample is problematic. In any scientific poll, researchers, via techniques like systematic random sampling or random digit dialing, can get a somewhat representative sample of the larger population. But to gain a truly representation sample is hard. People who are statically sampled might not necessarily be speaking for others, they are in a sense speaking only for themselves. Fishkin, argues that even if we did manage to get a perfect sample, their opinions might not be the best ones to take in order to make policies. The author contends that while public opinion is valued by the government officials and in theory used as a means which helps form new policies, they are based of off samples that are poorly measured and informed.

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